The ocean-climate-biodiversity-people nexus: uncovering safe operating space for safeguarding the integrity and health of the global ocean

In line with the European and global biodiversity and climate objectives, successful proposals should further the European efforts in achieving both climate–neutrality and ocean sustainability, by improving the scientific understanding of the short-, medium- and long-term ocean health and integrity at different emission scenarios, under the cumulative and cascading pressures of current and emerging threats, including ocean climate interventions, tipping points and passing of planetary boundaries, risks and impacts, speed and magnitude of change in deep-sea biodiversity and response measures guided by the precautionary principle and supporting decision-making at regional, European and global levels.

Project results are expected to contribute to several of the following expected outcomes:

• further improved understanding of the limits to ocean integrity at different emission scenarios; ocean changes and near term (∼2030), mid-term (2050–2060) and long-term (after ∼2060) climate actions and policy making under climate inertia, guided by the precautionary approach;
• further advanced science regarding ocean existing and emerging threats and the associated risks and impacts for the next 5–10 years; 10-20 ys; 50-100 ys and more; and uncovering possible response measures guided by the precautionary principle;
• improved understanding of trends, variability, drivers, and social and ecological impacts of ocean acidification (as an integral part of a multi-stressor and cascading problem, alongside ocean warming, deoxygenation, eutrophication, stratification, etc.); more harmonised and tailored ocean acidification monitoring (both chemical and biological), modelling, observation, data integration and prediction capabilities and mitigation activities;
• important contributions made to key ocean monitoring indicators, Essential Climate Variables (ECVs from GCOS), Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs from GOOS) in compliance with international programmes (IPCC, WOA, IPBES, CMIP, CLIVAR, Ocean Health Index, UN Decade, ARGO) that support international global assessments and foster the development of a regional approach to ocean climate monitoring and reporting, overcoming current limitations and gaps;
• further improved Earth System Models (ESMs) representing key physical, biogeochemical, and biological processes in the ocean with reduced uncertainty of climate change projections at regional scales, and reduced biases (i.e., in the WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) models for ocean and polar regions);
• enabled evidence-based regional, European, and global decision–making on ocean governance; sustained European leadership in ocean–climate–biodiversity science nexus supporting EU programmes; significant contribution to global scientific assessments, such as the IPCC, IPBES and WOA, as well as to the UNFCCC Ocean and Climate Change Dialogue, UN Decade of Ocean Science and UN SDGs 13 and 14.

Actions should aim at developing innovative approaches to address only one of the following options:

A. Ocean integrity at different emission scenarios: extreme events, slow onset events, cascading and tipping elements and ocean inertia

The project is expected to:

• advance the science on ocean tipping elements at different GHG emission scenarios, lag times, opportunities and impacts at multi-decadal to multi-centennial timeframes, including the risk of irreversible changes in the carbon cycle and the risks under various overshoot pathways;
• advance the science on ocean changes and near term (∼2030), mid-term (2050–2060) and long-term (after ∼2060) climate actions;
• contribute to integrated prediction systems that combine Earth System, Ecosystem and Social System models; fully Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and Earth System Models (ESMs) with Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) (ocean biochemistry, ecology, and biology); ability and/or sensitivity of global Earth System Models (ESM) to simulate tipping point crossings; integrated prediction systems that combine Earth System, Ecosystem and Social System models;
• elaborate on the policy implications of inertia (climate inertia and its thermal, ocean, ice sheet, carbon cycle feedbacks and marine ecological components) and develop recommendations for European policy making.

B. Ocean integrity and health: current and emerging anthropogenic threats

The project is expected to:

• advance the science of ocean emerging threats - identify emerging threats that are likely to have a significant impact on the health and functioning of the ocean over the next 5–10 years; 10-20 ys; 50-100 ys and more;
• exploratory research into short-, medium- and long-term impacts on ocean health and marine biodiversity arising from existing and emerging anthropogenic threats, such as (the list is purely informative): mining for critical materials, technologically enhanced ocean carbon uptake, ocean climate interventions, emerging marine renewable energy (wave, tidal, ocean current, offshore wind power, offshore solar energy, ocean floor geothermal energy), new hydrogen economy and leakages, ocean crops, marine engineering and oil drilling, untapped potential of marine collagens and their impacts on marine ecosystems, exploring marine genetic resources, impacts of expanding trade for fish swim bladders on target and non-target species, impacts of fishing for mesopelagic species on the biological ocean carbon pump, colocation of marine activities, floating marine cities, trace-element contamination compounded by the global transition to green technologies, emerging NIS (invasive species) and pathogens, novel and emerging chemical problems, nutrient and pesticide runoff from industrial agriculture, nanomaterials and micro and nanoplastics, potentially toxic effects of new biodegradable materials intended to replace plastics, emerging contaminants of concern, emerging applications of seaweeds, entanglement of marine mammals in mooring lines, cables and anchors, microalgae for biofuels, marine hydrates, seaweeds supply for human consumption and also raw materials for feeds, nutraceuticals and pharmaceuticals;
• support improved risk assessment and management actions that can contribute to mitigate the impacts of these current and emerging stressors and inform public and policymakers to mitigate potentially negative impacts through precautionary principles before those effects become realized.

C. Ocean integrity and health: Ocean Acidification (OA), Planetary Boundaries and SDG14.3.1

Making appropriate use of the Guide to best practices for ocean acidification research and data reporting^[1], the project is expected to:

• improve our understanding of trends, variability, drivers, and impacts (ecological, ecosystem services and human) of ocean acidification, in a context of multiple ocean stressors;
• better incorporate complex interactions between natural systems (e.g., climate-ocean coupling, shifting food webs), social systems (e.g., anthropogenic activities, marine pollution, overfishing), and their social, economic, and ecological impacts;
• fill gaps in space and time for ocean CO₂ and ancillary physical and biogeochemical observations at the ocean surface and interior to reduce the biases and uncertainties in the variability and trends for air–sea fluxes and inventory changes, particularly for the Arctic and the Southern Ocean;
• improve our understanding of changes in water mass ventilation associated with climate change and variability to gain further insights into future trends in ocean acidification and deoxygenation in the ocean interior;
• better understand aerosol pH, including more direct measurements, and the process controlling the lability of iron, phosphorus, and other trace metals in atmospheric deposition, as well as the need for more direct measurements of the atmospheric deposition of these nutrients to the ocean, particularly in remote ocean regions such as the Southern Ocean;
• improve observations for the interplay between carbonate chemistry and a variety of biogeochemical and physical processes to increase the robustness of future assessments of ocean acidification; ensure better harmonised and tailored monitoring and data integration, improved models (both in term of spatial resolution and representation of the biological processes), and further integrate observations and model products;
• identify and monitor indicators of biological/ecosystem responses to ocean acidification coupled to support the assessment of ecosystem risk and consequences, and better inform management strategies at temporal and spatial scales relevant for organisms and their habitats;
• use models, forecasts, and predictions as tools to facilitate management strategies and design decision-support tools for prioritising the development of climate adaptation strategies, develop innovative tools to monitor and mitigate changing ocean chemistry locally, explore the potential opportunities and risks associated with the research findings, aligned with policy governance, including the different spatial-temporal scales that are ecologically and socio-economically relevant and politically applicable, propose actionable innovative solutions and policy recommendations.

For all three options (A, B & C), actions funded under this topic should have a strong collaboration mechanism and should include a dedicated task, appropriate resources, and a plan on how they will collaborate with one another.

The actions should build on existing observing platforms, e.g. in the context of the Copernicus programme, and strengthen and expand the current capacities in an inter and multidisciplinary and ecosystem-based approach. The research carried out should also include SSH perspectives and gender, and the research on desirability, benefits and disbenefits should also be done in relation to desirability for whom, benefits and disbenefits for whom, adding a comprehensive justice perspective on the call, including intergenerational.

International cooperation is encouraged, especially with AAORIA partner countries. A strong linkage should be ensured with the ongoing activities under the UN Decade of Ocean Science, including where relevant the Decade Programme of the Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network GOA-ON.

Actions under this topic will build upon and link with sister Horizon projects, the Copernicus marine service (CMEMS), GOOS, the Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS), MBON of GEOBON, ICOS, GCOS, and other relevant international Ocean Observing Initiatives. All in-situ data collected through actions funded from this call should follow INSPIRE principles and be available through open access repositories supported by the European Commission (Copernicus, and EMODnet). Synergies with the Horizon Europe Mission Restore our Ocean and waters is encouraged; the projects outputs may contribute to the European Digital Twin of the Ocean and the Destination Earth initiative and outline specific plans to this effect.

This topic is part of a coordination initiative between ESA and the European Commission on Earth System Science and should towards this end include sufficient means and resources for effective coordination. Projects should leverage the data and services available through European Research Infrastructures federated under the European Open Science Cloud, Copernicus, as well as data from relevant data spaces in the data-driven analyses. Projects could additionally benefit from access to infrastructure and relevant FAIR data by collaborating with projects funded under the topics HORIZON-INFRA-2022-EOSC-01-03: FAIR and open data sharing in support of healthy oceans, seas, coastal and inland waters and HORIZON-INFRA-2024- EOSC-01-01: FAIR and open data sharing in support of the mission adaptation to climate change. Collaboration with the relevant existing European Research Infrastructures such as those prioritised by the European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures (ESFRI)^[2] is encouraged.

[1] European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Hansson, L., Fabry, V., Gattuso, J. et al., Guide to best practices for ocean acidification research and data reporting, Hansson, L.(editor), Fabry, V.(editor), Gattuso, J.(editor), Riebesell, U.(editor), Publications Office, 2010, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2777/58454

[2] The catalogue of European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures (ESFRI) research infrastructures portfolio can be browsed from ESFRI website https://ri-portfolio.esfri.eu/.