Enhanced preparedness and management of High-Impact Low-Probability or unexpected events
HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions
Basic Information
- Identifier
- HORIZON-CL3-2022-DRS-01-02
- Programme
- Disaster-Resilient Society 2022
- Programme Period
- 2021 - 2027
- Status
- Closed (31094503)
- Opening Date
- June 30, 2022
- Deadline
- November 23, 2022
- Deadline Model
- single-stage
- Budget
- €11,000,000
- Min Grant Amount
- €6,000,000
- Max Grant Amount
- €6,000,000
- Expected Number of Grants
- 1
- Keywords
- Ensure Communication and alertsArtificial IntelligenceBiohazards, biological containment, biosafety, bioInfectious diseasesExplosivesFirst respondersSecure SocietiesSecurityCritical Infrastructure Protection (CIP)Social, economic, cultural and political historyCommunicationForesightPlatform and system concept studiesScenario generationPolice authoritiesSocial sciences and humanitiesNuclearOptimisation, Planning & Decision Support systemsPlans and concepts for disaster medicine and relevImpact analysis concepts and impact reductionEvaluation of threats and vulnerabilitiesCultural heritage, cultural memoryTake protection measures (proactive and reactive oDisaster resilience and crisis managementDigital Agenda
Description
Projects’ results are expected to contribute to some of the following outcomes:
- Increased understanding of high impact-low probability events in the short and medium term, both from natural and man-made hazards. These perspectives include cultural, societal, regional, ethical and historical contexts. This should capture new and emerging risks and develop end-user-friendly tools for risk assessors to conceptualise such risks.
- Improved methods/tools for decision-making under uncertainty to prepare for high-impact low-probability events. These methods could include the impact of past events, communication and linguistic components, and regional specificities. These should be developed in close cooperation with end users to maximise application of these tools in practice.
- Better preparedness for and management of high-impact low-probability risks that most, if not all, experts have difficulty conceptualising (the unexpected events), including by developing no-regret options that can address different kinds of impacts irrespective of the cause.
- Improved mapping of i) socioeconomic systems’ interdependencies that can be negatively affected by high-impact low-probability events, and ii) which systems contribute to the materialisation of high-impact low-probability risks by increasing societal vulnerability. This would be supported by identification of interventions where resilience-building would be most effective. This identification could be based on an in-depth understanding of past events, a mapping of the current societies’ cultural sensibilities in a geographical space / region context, and/or their ethical and legal contexts.
- Improved preparedness at an individual level, at local level and at the governmental level, including through clarifying roles and responsibilities around management of high-impact low-probability events. An improved understanding of existing risk and resilience management capacities across Europe at national and regional levels for responding to high-impact low-probability risks that Europe may face.
- Development of appropriate simulation tools to identify areas under higher risk of occurrence of HILP events and development of preparedness plans and management mechanisms, including communication, to address the effects of such occurrence.
- Combination of qualitative and quantitative approach strategies, which encompass practical and probabilistic knowledge to increase the success rate of identifying and adequately monitoring fast developing risks into potential high-impact low-probability events
- Multi-disciplinary reference library around HILP events and their impacts would allow to build up a record of observations that can help quantify the impacts and, by analogy, similar risks that might arise in the future.
- Scenario-building exercises and stress-test risk-related practices in critical infrastructure sectors (e.g., transport, communications, energy) would enhance preparedness and help identify particularly affected social groups while enabling rapid financial and practical support where national organizations are unable to cope or where the consequences are cross-border in nature. Independent, high-quality hubs (national or regional) for up-to-date risk notification and provision of scientific information and communication in a crisis – supported by governments, businesses and industry associations.
The risk landscape has changed significantly over the last decades. With new and emerging risks and risk magnifiers such as climate change, cyber threats, infectious diseases and terrorism, countries need to anticipate and prepare for the unexpected and difficult to predict.
At European level, there is, however, no agreed definition nor methodology to characterise HILP and unexpected events, resulting in differing impact scales and a lack of comparability of risk ratings among National Risk Assessments. High-impact, low-probability risks (HILP/Hi-Lo) can be understood as “events or occurrences that cannot easily be anticipated, arise randomly and unexpectedly, and have immediate effects and significant impacts”. They can manifest themselves not only as one-off high-profile crises and mega-disasters (e.g., Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident, eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano, 9/11 terrorist attack in the U.S. and COVID-19 pandemic) but also as lower-profile, persistent events with equally serious impacts such as flooding, droughts and cyclones which, owing to the low likelihood of occurrence or the high cost of mitigating action, remain un- or under-prepared for.
High-impact, low-probability events (HILP) and their cascading effects raise many challenges for governments, businesses and decision-makers, including defining where the responsibilities lie in preparing for both individual shocks and slow-motion trends (e.g. global warming, tipping points, sea level rise) that tend to increase their magnitude and frequency. A 2019 revision of Decision 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism has brought attention to high impact low probability risks and events, now requiring Member States to take prevention and preparedness measures to address them where appropriate, and the EU fully financing capacities through rescEU to respond to high impact low probability events.
To get the right balance between planning for specific ‘known’ events and creating generic responses for events that are rare or unexpected, research should support the anticipation and management of shock events through improving planning processes, establishing broader risk-uncertainty frameworks that capture such events, enhancing business resilience and responses to shocks, and stepping up communications in a crisis.
Preparing for and managing the consequences of a HILP event will benefit firstly from developing an increased understanding of new and emerging risks, besides the required risk understanding dealt with in topics CL3-2021-DRS-01-01 and CL3-2021-DRS-01-02, and in close connection to them. Improved methods should also be sought to support risk assessors and decision-makers in conceptualising these risks and developing no-regret options to manage them. A thorough understanding of existing risk management capacities across Europe at national and regional levels for responding to high-impact low-probability risks that Europe may face would contribute to improving preparedness at the European level to risks that can affect multiple countries at once and overwhelm national response capacities. Finally, enhancing preparedness for and management of high impact low-probability events cannot happen without an increased resilience of individuals. In close connection to topic CL3-2021-DRS-01-02, research is also needed on how to prepare citizens for unfamiliar risks and what information to disseminate, and how to communicate, during the disaster or crisis-related emergency in order to manage panic, confusion and threats of disinformation.
Given the practical nature of this topic, co-design, co-development, co-dissemination and co-evaluation of the research outputs engaging the intended end users will be particularly important.
This topic requires the effective contribution of SSH disciplines and the involvement of SSH experts, institutions as well as the inclusion of relevant SSH expertise, in order to produce meaningful and significant effects enhancing the societal impact of the related research activities.
Specific Topic Conditions:Activities are expected to achieve TRL 4-5 by the end of the project – see General Annex B.
Cross-cutting Priorities:Digital Agenda
Foresight
Social sciences and humanities
Artificial Intelligence
Destination & Scope
This Destination supports the implementation of international policy frameworks (e.g. the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Paris Agreement, Sustainable Development Goals), EU disaster risk management policies tackling natural and man-made threats (either accidental or intentional), European Green Deal priorities including the new EU Climate Adaptation Strategy COM(2021) 82 final., as well as the Security Union Strategy[[COM(2020) 605 final.]] and the Counter-Terrorism Agenda[[COM(2020) 795 final.]] .
The world and our societies are facing growing risks from anthropogenic and natural hazards, which call for enhanced capacities in risk and resilience management and governance[[Overview of natural and man-made disaster risks the European Union may face, SWD(2020) 330.]], including instruments for better prevention and preparedness, technologies for first and second responders[[A “second responder” is a worker who supports "first responders" such as police, fire, and emergency medical personnel. They are involved in preparing, managing, returning services, and cleaning up sites during and after an event requiring first responders, including crime scenes and areas damaged by fire, storm, wind, floods, earthquakes, or other natural disasters. These types of services may include utility services (shutdown or reinstatement of electrical, gas, sewage, and/or water services), wireless or wireline communication services, specialty construction (i.e. shelter construction), hazardous waste clean-up, road clearing, crowd control, emergency services (i.e. Red Cross), first aid, food services, security services, social services (i.e., trauma counsellors), and sanitation.]], and where relevant for citizens, and overall societal resilience. The increasing severity and frequency of extreme weather events (e.g. floods, heat and cold waves, storms) and associated events (e.g. forest fires) resulting from climate change compounded vulnerabilities and exposure require a specific research focus while geological hazards (e.g. earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions) and slow-onset trends (e.g. sea-level rise, glacier melt, droughts) also deserve a continuous attention. Anthropogenic threats also demand strengthened crisis management capacities, as shown by recent industrial accidents and terrorist attacks associated with chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and explosive materials (CBRN-E). Finally, the COVID-19 crisis has demonstrated how societies have become more exposed and vulnerable to pandemic risks and has shown that existing global inequalities often exacerbate both the exposure and vulnerability of communities, infrastructures and economies.
Risk reduction of any kind of disasters is regulated by a number of international, EU and national and local policies and strategies covering various sectors and features such as awareness raising and communication, prevention, mitigation, preparedness, monitoring and detection, response, and recovery. Our societies nowadays have to deal with complex and transboundary crises within which a more systemic approach with strict interconnection between risk reduction and sustainable development is needed. Complex crises affect scientific, governance, policy and social areas and require inter-sectoral cooperation. A wide range of research and technological developments, as well as capacity-building and training projects, has supported the development and implementation of policies and strategies. However, integrating further research and innovation needs is often difficult owing to the complexity of the policy framework and the high level of fragmentation of research and capacity-building initiatives. In addition, enhanced cooperation and involvement of different sectors and actors are essential, including policy-makers, scientists, industry/Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), public administration (both at national and regional/local level), scientists, credit/financial institutions, practitioners, Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs), and Civil-Society Organisations (CSOs), notwithstanding the citizen dimension.
In this respect, the implementation of international policy frameworks (e.g. the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Paris Agreement), EU disaster risk management policies, in particular the Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM), the European Green Deal policies such as the new EU Climate Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Security Union Strategy and the Counter-Terrorism Agenda (in particular for disasters linked to terrorism), requires cross-border and cross-sectoral cooperation an enhanced collaboration among different actors and strengthened knowledge covering the whole disaster management cycle, from prevention and preparedness to response and recovery (and learning). Understanding and exploiting the existing linkages and synergies among policy frameworks represents in this sense a global priority for future research and innovation actions in the field of natural hazards and man-made disasters.
For the response side, international cooperation on research and innovation with key partners has the potential to identify common solutions and increase the relevance of outcomes. As such, the International Forum to Advance First Responder Innovation (IFAFRI) and other Expert Networks involved in UN and/or NATO initiatives have provided overviews of existing gaps and are in the position to engage in cooperation with partners inside and outside the EU, the results of which can provide a valuable source for identifying most urgent needs concerning disaster management (e.g. knowledge, operational, organizational and technological) of relevance to international cooperation, in particular in support to the implementation of international policies such as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.
Integrated approaches are essential to bridge different policy areas including civil protection, environment (including water, forestry, biodiversity / nature and Seveso-related policies), climate adaptation and mitigation, health and consumer protection, and security (in particular in the CBRN-E area). Common resilience pathways emerging from different scientific and operational domains still need to be explored in terms of their implementation potential. It also requires the strengthening of opportunities for transdisciplinary and transboundary joint efforts in order to organise and structure, a new strategy for the Horizon Europe Framework with all the relevant actors. In particular, the paradigm shift from managing “disasters” to managing “risks” and enhancing resilience needs to be supported by research and innovation actions, including innovative methods and solutions addressed to decision-makers, to support complementary education and training needed in all the domains of interventions (from public administration to private companies, citizens, NGOs), complementary procedural and organisational changes that have impact on the overall society as well as on technologies, processes, procedures and various tools in support of first and second responders operations. A huge body of knowledge and technology has been developed in the Seventh Framework Programme and Horizon 2020. This forms a strong legacy that will pave the way for future research in support of an enhanced resilience of European society to disasters of any kind, and previous findings will need to be fully recognised and used in forthcoming research developments.
Successful proposals under this Destination are encouraged to closely cooperate with other EC-chaired or funded initiatives in the relevant domains, such as the Networks of Practitioners projects funded under H2020 Secure Societies work programmes, the Knowledge Networks for Security Research & Innovation funded under the Horizon Europe Cluster 3 Work Programme, the Community of Users for Secure, Safe and Resilient Societies (future CERIS –Community of European Research and Innovation for Security) or other Knowledge Networks set-up by European Commission services (e.g. the Union Civil Protection Knowledge Network[[Article 13 of Decision No 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism and subsequent amendments.]]).
Furthermore, in order to accomplish the objectives of this Destination, additional eligibility conditions have been defined with regard to the active involvement of relevant security practitioners or end-users.
Proposals involving earth observation are encouraged to primarily make use of Copernicus data, services and technologies.
Proposals for topics under this Destination should set out a credible pathway to contributing to the following expected impact of the Horizon Europe Strategic Plan 2021-2024:
“Losses from natural, accidental and man-made disasters are reduced through enhanced disaster risk reduction based on preventive actions, better societal preparedness and resilience and improved disaster risk management in a systemic way.”
More specifically, proposals should contribute to the achievement of one or more of the following impacts:
- Enhanced understanding and improved knowledge and situational awareness of disaster-related risks by citizens, empowered to act, thus raising the resilience of European society;
- More efficient cross-sectoral, cross-disciplines, cross-border coordination of the disaster risk management cycle (from prevention, preparedness to mitigation, response, and recovery) from international to local levels.
Enhanced sharing of knowledge and coordination regarding standardisation in the area of crisis management and CBRN-E.
Strengthened capacities of first responders in all operational phases related to any kind of (natural and man-made) disasters so that they can better prepare their operations, have access to enhanced situational awareness, have means to respond to events in a faster, safer and more efficient way, and may more effectively proceed with victim identification, triage and care.
Eligibility & Conditions
General conditions
1. Admissibility conditions: described in Annex A and Annex E of the Horizon Europe Work Programme General Annexes
Proposal page limits and layout: described in Part B of the Application Form available in the Submission System
2. Eligible countries: described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes
A number of non-EU/non-Associated Countries that are not automatically eligible for funding have made specific provisions for making funding available for their participants in Horizon Europe projects. See the information in the Horizon Europe Programme Guide.
3. Other eligibility conditions: described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes
The following additional eligibility conditions apply:
This topic requires a multidisciplinary consortium involving:
- representatives of scientific areas that are relevant for this topic;
- as well as representatives of stakeholders (both practitioners and policy-makers).
For all the participants above, applicants must fill in the table “Eligibility information about practitioners” in the application form with all the requested information, following the template provided in the submission IT tool.
If projects use satellite-based, positioning, navigation and/or related timing data and services, beneficiaries must make use of Galileo/EGNOS (other data and services may additionally be used). The use of Copernicus for earth observation is encouraged.
4. Financial and operational capacity and exclusion: described in Annex C of the Work Programme General Annexes
5. Evaluation and award:
- Award criteria, scoring and thresholds are described in Annex D of the Work Programme General Annexes
- Submission and evaluation processes are described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes and the Online Manual
To ensure a balanced portfolio, grants will be awarded to applications not only in order of ranking but at least also to those that are the highest ranked within set topics, provided that the applications attain all thresholds.
- Indicative timeline for evaluation and grant agreement: described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes
6. Legal and financial set-up of the grants: described in Annex G of the Work Programme General Annexes
Specific conditions
7. Specific conditions: described in the [specific topic of the Work Programme]
Documents
Call documents:
Standard application form — call-specific application form is available in the Submission System
Standard application form (HE RIA, IA)
Standard application form (HE CSA)
Standard application form (HE PCP)
Standard evaluation form — will be used with the necessary adaptations
Standard evaluation form (HE RIA, IA)
Standard evaluation form (HE CSA)
Standard evaluation form (HE PCP PPI)
MGA
Call-specific instructions
Additional documents:
HE Main Work Programme 2021–2022 – 1. General Introduction
HE Main Work Programme 2021–2022 – 6. Civil Security for Society
HE Main Work Programme 2021–2022 – 13. General Annexes
Rules for Legal Entity Validation, LEAR Appointment and Financial Capacity Assessment
EU Grants AGA — Annotated Model Grant Agreement
Funding & Tenders Portal Online Manual
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